Ethiopian Informer(Xinhua) — Iran’s state media confirmed Sunday that its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a joint U.S.-Israeli attack on Saturday, prompting Iranian missile strikes on Israel and U.S. targets across the region.
What happened in the past 24 hours? Why did the United States and Israel take action now? How will Iran retaliate? Will this conflict escalate?
WHAT HAPPENED?
Israel announced a “preemptive” strike on Saturday morning, sending about 200 fighter jets in simultaneous airstrikes on missile and defense systems in western and central Iran.
Shortly after the Israeli announcement, U.S. President Donald Trump said on his social media platform Truth Social that U.S. forces are “undertaking a massive and ongoing operation” targeting Iran’s missile industry.
Iran retaliated swiftly, declaring all U.S. military bases in the region legitimate targets and striking Israel and U.S. assets across the Gulf, with explosions reported in Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia, among other countries.
Iranian media reported that the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps had closed the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, declaring the vital oil and gas waterway unsafe due to U.S. and Israeli attacks.
The Iranian Red Crescent Society said that the strikes hit at least 24 of Iran’s 31 provinces, with 201 deaths and 747 injuries reported so far.
Up to 160 people could have been killed as airstrikes struck a school in southern Iran, said Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei. Iran’s president condemned the incident as “inhumane.”
In Tehran, missiles struck near the offices of Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian.
Trump said Saturday that Khamenei was killed in the strikes — a claim later confirmed on Sunday by Iran’s state media, after which the government announced a 40-day mourning period.
WHY NOW?
Trump said in an eight-minute video that the objective “is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats” from Iran. Echoing his remarks, the Israeli Defense Ministry said the action aims to “remove threats to Israel.”
Analysts suggest the rhetoric indicates a broader objective: government change in Iran through military force.
Unlike the June 2025 strikes targeting underground nuclear facilities away from civilian zones, this operation hit multiple cities and leadership sites.
The timing was chosen to maximize chances of eliminating top Iranian leaders while they were at their command posts, Syrian international relations researcher Mohammad Nader al-Omari said, adding that both the United States and Israel sought a swift, decisive outcome with minimal losses.
The Pentagon has named the operation “Operation Epic Fury,” and U.S. officials told news outlets that it could continue for days or weeks. According to Israeli media, planning had been underway for months, with the final date set weeks ago.
Before launching the strikes, the Trump administration built up the U.S. military presence in the Middle East to its largest level since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Meanwhile, Israel operates around 300 advanced fighter jets and maintains a multi-layered air defense system designed to counter short-range rockets, medium-range threats and ballistic missiles.
Liu Chang, an expert at the China Institute of International Studies, said that the strikes aim to paralyze Iran’s high-level command structure and weaken domestic resistance while using military pressure as leverage in potential negotiations.
HOW WILL IRAN RETALIATE?
There are no “red lines” for Iran after the U.S.-Israeli strikes, Al Jazeera reported, citing an unnamed Iranian official. Anything is possible, the report said, including scenarios never before considered.
“We are not surprised by this aggression. Our response will be full and open-ended, without time limits,” the official said.
While the United States and Israel maintain a significant military advantage, Iran retains potent retaliatory options, particularly its ballistic missile arsenal.
According to Al Jazeera, the exact size of Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal is unclear. Still, it is widely considered one of the largest and most advanced in the Middle East, with some missile types capable of reaching Israel in roughly 12 minutes.
Diplomatically, Iran called on the United Nations to act against the strikes. Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi, in letters to the UN secretary general and Security Council, reaffirmed Iran’s right to self-defense, vowing to respond “decisively and immediately” until the aggression “completely and unconditionally stops.”
Experts warned that continued U.S. and Israeli escalation could prompt Iran to coordinate with regional allies — including Yemen’s Houthis, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Iraqi Shiite militias — to strike U.S. and Israeli targets across the Middle East.
WILL CONFLICT ESCALATE?
After announcing Khamenei’s death, Trump said that “the heavy and pinpoint bombing, however, will continue, uninterrupted throughout the week or, as long as necessary to achieve our objective of PEACE THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE EAST AND, INDEED, THE WORLD!”
Analysts cautioned that what begins as a calculated military action could spiral into an uncontrollable regional conflagration.
Adel al-Ghurairi, an Iraqi political analyst and professor at Baghdad University said, “The diplomatic track had already failed,” adding that the strike “is an admission that they believe the military option is the only remaining tool to roll back Iran’s nuclear progress.”
Gulf countries may face pressure to take sides, “exacerbating existing rivalries or triggering new security dilemmas,” said Palestinian political analyst Hussam al-Dajani.
Syrian researcher in international relations Mohammad Nader al-Omari noted the timing of the strikes reflects domestic political considerations. A rapid resolution, whether through systemic collapse in Tehran or its significant weakening, would benefit Trump ahead of the U.S. midterm congressional elections and bolster Benjamin Netanyahu’s prime ministerial bid, creating incentives for escalation, he said.
William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, warned that prolonged conflict could push Brent crude to 100 U.S. dollars per barrel, adding up to 0.7 percentage points to global inflation.
Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20 percent of world oil, risks immediate supply disruptions. Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies may face pressure to raise production, he added.
